[SMM Analysis] the short market of silver price is over? The general trend in the future is still bullish.

SMM2 March 3: the Shanghai Bank fell sharply today, with the main contract plummeting 6.05% to 5590 yuan / ton. The main force of Shanghai silver rose sharply after retail investors on the US retail Reddit forum called for "the biggest silver drive in history", hitting as high as 6085 yuan / kg yesterday, the highest since September 2020.

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This round of silver futures correction is directly due to the fact that (CME) yesterday raised the margin of COMEX silver futures by 18%, and the margin of silver futures trading increased from US $14000 to US $16500 per contract, cracking down on high speculation in the market and prompting investors to take profits.

However, the spot market silver demand is still hot, silver retail website said, has been overwhelmed by a large number of silver bars and silver coins demand. Long investors are convinced that higher silver prices will hit large banks that hold large short positions. The US Mint said yesterday that it would impose restrictions on the sale of silver coins due to continued abnormal market demand and limited production capacity.

At the same time, silver ETF position is still surging, according to silver ETF position data, as of February 2, silver ETF position increased by 1766.16 tons compared with the previous trading day, another record increase, while the total position reached 21067.85 tons, a new all-time high.

Recently, the price of silver has fluctuated sharply, and the volatility has been rising since 2020. Since 2020, the price of silver has basically fluctuated in the range of 2857-6887 yuan per ton, with ups and downs of more than 5 per cent occurring almost every month.

SMM believes that the general trend is still bullish, but unlike the previous unilateral market, in 2020, due to the influence of factors such as the economic situation, sudden sharp rises and falls frequently. The competition for long and short positions back and forth is also extremely fierce, and the situation of killing more and killing short is even more tragic than ever. This performance is likely to continue in 2021, coupled with the anti-inflation and risk-averse properties of precious metals such as gold and silver. The spot market and other related investment markets will also become extremely exciting in the future.

Guoxin Futures believes that at present, the overall precious metals sector is suppressed by insufficient monetary policy easing and potential shrinking fears. Judging from the recent Fed meeting and the statement made by Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell, the prospects for economic recovery are expected to improve in the future with the support of vaccines and fiscal stimulus. Although the Federal Reserve has previously stated that it has calmed down the panic of "scaling back" in the market, it is still not enough to allay worries, and the long-term pressure on precious metals still exists. In terms of silver, gold has a stronger industrial attribute and is expected to be strongly supported in inflation expectations and new energy development trends.

Otavio Costa: silver, a portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, a US hedge fund, is expected to continue to climb. Silver prices rebounded more than 8 per cent yesterday after forcing out the air on Monday and turning into strong demand for physical silver. But the trend of silver is more complicated than that of game stations and is likely to rise sharply again. Silver is driven higher by a number of factors, including massive global debt accumulation, a flood of liquidity driving down interest rates, the lack of reasonably priced assets with yields higher than inflation, and the supply (shortage) of silver, taken together, silver of less than $30 an ounce is probably the most attractive asset.